The World Cup Money Study
Synthetic audiences of AI personas with assigned incomes, personalities, and fact-checked tournament diaries. Each panel answered as of a fixed date before the semifinals, knowing only what a fan could know that day. Directional research, not population polling. All counts reported as X of N, never percentages. Chapters 1 through 6 analyzed and independently audited.
Will fans pay official World Cup shirt prices — and when does the €25 counterfeit become the rational purchase?
Median firm ceiling €60. Only 3 of 67 fans reach the €100 official price band. 34 are counterfeit pragmatists. Zero new full-price commitments after seeing the price card. A semifinal berth adds €10 to the median ceiling — 19 of 25 fans raised it.
What cash offer turns a once-in-a-lifetime experience into a traded asset?
Nobody sells at $300 or $600. 20 of 24 had sold by $4,000 — 67× face value. Four refused at 96× face. The alive-team fan held out longer in 11 of 12 matched pairs.
Does reaching the next round add more spending than elimination destroys?
Alive fans +€10 median next-week spend (14 raised, 0 fell). Eliminated: −€9 (QF) and −€12 (R16). Zero of 42 eliminated fans raised their coming-week spend. Median shirt ceiling didn't move in any group. But 8 eliminated fans raised theirs after their team went out. Final-weekend spend fell for everyone, alive fans most (−€20). Elimination cut the occasion before it cut the identity.
Who inherits a fan's allegiance when their country goes out?
Spain inherited 28 of 42 orphaned fans. Argentina 8, France 6, England 0. 42 of 42 chose a side — no one stayed unattached. 36 of 42 would watch properly; 32 of 42 would spend on the viewing occasion. 0 of 42 planned to buy another team's shirt, place a bet, or expected allegiance to last past the final. Veto analysis held for follow-up release.
Do the tournament's flagship campaigns actually work — and for whom?
285 of 285 brand attributions correct — logos off, brands recognized. Adidas won replay votes 92/95 but only 71/95 on spending influence. 27/95 changed their top-ranked campaign after seeing all three: 15 Adidas→LEGO, 9 Adidas→Nike, 3 LEGO→Adidas.
What is living near the World Cup worth when heritage, income, and fandom are held constant?
Host-region twins spent +€15 more per week (19 of 24 planned higher). 0 of 24 attended a stadium match in either region. Europe's all-in ceiling (€550 median) exceeded host region's (€215) — 22 of 24 Europe ceiling higher. Shirt ceiling held at €35 in both regions.
Data locked 12 July 2026. Final played 19 July 2026. Seven days before the final, 28 of 42 orphaned fans had already backed Spain. Spain went on to win the final. Not a prediction. A signal.
"That's just match-night money, not fan money."
Six chapters on how fans spend, sell, hold, and adopt across a live tournament. Run a study like this on your own audience in under 30 minutes.
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